Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,424$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,081.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(98,081.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,203$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,167.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,167.4\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,799$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $126,045$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,894.7}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129,894.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,397$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,727.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,727.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,497$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,208$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,913.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,913.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $232$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(28.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,227$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,163$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,581.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,581.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $126$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(321.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,274$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $872$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(128 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(857.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.43 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $561$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,983$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,828.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,828.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $38$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{0.050t}\) (doubling rate \(6.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.4}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 26.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,169$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,223$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(993 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,298.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,298.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $607$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(54.5 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(639.7\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,402$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,011$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,749.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,749.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $184$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(22.7 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 25.1)}}\) (asimptote \(222.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,693$ on 2020-05-03