Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Cyprus
  • Kuwait
  • Philippines
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Thailand
  • Korea, South
  • Taiwan*

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,424$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,081.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(98,081.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,203$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,167.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,167.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,799$ on 2020-05-03

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,045$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,894.7}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129,894.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,397$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,727.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,727.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,497$ on 2020-05-03

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,208$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,913.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,913.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $232$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(28.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,227$ on 2020-05-03

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,163$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,581.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,581.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $126$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(321.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,274$ on 2020-05-03

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $872$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(128 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(857.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.43 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $561$ on 2020-05-03

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,983$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(31.6 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,828.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,828.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{0.050t}\) (doubling rate \(6.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.4}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 26.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,169$ on 2020-05-03

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,223$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(993 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,298.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,298.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $607$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(54.5 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(639.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,402$ on 2020-05-03

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,011$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,749.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(47,749.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $184$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(22.7 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 25.1)}}\) (asimptote \(222.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,693$ on 2020-05-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 82%
Taiwan* recovered 69%
Iran recovered 63%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 47%
Uzbekistan recovered 40%
Israel recovered 37%
Turkey recovered 26%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,964$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,292.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,085.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 24.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,085.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-03

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,969$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(787 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,890.3}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 18.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,890.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(20 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.7}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $176$ on 2020-05-03

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,801$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,297.3}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,297.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(50.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(258.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,332$ on 2020-05-03

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $436$ on 2020-05-03

Best fit exponential: \(74.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{426.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(426.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-03

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-05-03